# Crisis Prediction: Banking Crisis Onset

| Variable | M1: Z baseline | M2: OADR | M3: Youth | M4: Z + EW | M5: EW only | M6: Z×KAOPEN |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.1589** | | | -0.1079 | | -0.1357* |
| | (0.0701) | | | (0.0725) | | (0.0709) |
| Z_2 | 0.0216** | | | 0.0141 | | 0.0163 |
| | (0.0105) | | | (0.0109) | | (0.0108) |
| Z_3 | -0.0008* | | | -0.0005 | | -0.0005 |
| | (0.0004) | | | (0.0004) | | (0.0004) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0002 | -0.0002 | -0.0003 | 0.0000 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0003) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.0007 | -0.0013 | -0.0017 | 0.0002 | -0.0005 | -0.0007 |
| | (0.0015) | (0.0014) | (0.0014) | (0.0016) | (0.0016) | (0.0015) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0010*** | -0.0011*** | -0.0011*** | -0.0011*** | -0.0012*** | -0.0011*** |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) |
| kaopen | -0.0016 | -0.0015 | -0.0006 | -0.0020 | -0.0005 | -0.0052*** |
| | (0.0012) | (0.0012) | (0.0012) | (0.0012) | (0.0010) | (0.0019) |
| old_dep | | 0.0492** | | | | |
| | | (0.0222) | | | | |
| youth_dep | | | -0.0034 | | | |
| | | | (0.0076) | | | |
| ca_gdp_lag1 | | | | -0.0002 | -0.0002 | |
| | | | | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | |
| reserves_to_liab | | | | -0.0005 | -0.0006 | |
| | | | | (0.0008) | (0.0008) | |
| inflation | | | | -0.0000 | -0.0000 | |
| | | | | (0.0000) | (0.0000) | |
| Z_1_x_kaopen | | | | | | 0.0269 |
| | | | | | | (0.0468) |
| Z_2_x_kaopen | | | | | | -0.0028 |
| | | | | | | (0.0071) |
| Z_3_x_kaopen | | | | | | 0.0001 |
| | | | | | | (0.0003) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5292 | 5292 | 5489 |
| R² | 0.0080 | 0.0046 | 0.0038 | 0.0076 | 0.0037 | 0.0094 |
| Countries | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. Standard errors in parentheses.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*